The Politics of Performing

'All the world's a stage, And all the men and women merely players',

This week, my father surprised me by suggesting we go to the LSE, where I was a student, to see Professor Richard Sennett of Columbia University's talk on his latest book 'The Great Fear: The Politics of Performing.' 

I didn't take notes, and my insights here are more my impression of the topic and then some of my further discussions with other friends, particularly Damien Seaman, whom I've worked closely with over the last seven years, on content strategy.

Why is it that demagogues like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson have such incredible success when often their arguments are weak or even irrelevant? How can poor people in the Midwest genuinely believe that a multi-billionaire who's lived a life of privilege cares about them? Joe Biden or Hilary Clinton, who are both closer to them in terms of life experience (middle class or even lower middle class), doesn't connect with them similarly? What is going on here?

Professor Sennett is uniquely qualified to understand the politics of performance since he is a Julliard-trained cellist who, due to a hand injury, had to abandon his career and retrained via degrees and a PhD at Harvard to become a sociology professor. 

Talking about our Prime Minster Boris Johnson, who won a landslide election in 2019, he said that he was certain that Boris had perfected his persona, with the unkempt hair, and slightly clownish appearance. Every time Boris speaks, it is a highly staged 'performance'. 

He contrasted this to Rishi Sunak, who, whilst seemingly far more competent, organised and business-like, comes across like a man with a 'tin ear'. And he will undoubtedly preside over a landslide, in the other direction, against him (though you probably can't blame that all on Rishi Sunak).

Professor Sennett mentioned Donald Trump's appeal many times as well. What did he think the results of the US election would be? Would 'Sleepy Joe' prevail? Or would Trump's bluster, seeming youthfulness (only compared to Biden, since they are close in age, Donald 77 to Joe's 81), and greater energy tip the polls in his favour? I would also have liked to ask Professor Sennett what practical applications of his ideas could President Biden apply to ensure his win. 

This lecture led to a varied and funny discussion with my father, Sir Kenneth Parker, at the Delaunay, where we had dinner afterwards. Coincidentally, Professor Sennett and his entourage were at the same restaurant! 

Dad mentioned a book he had just read, written by one of Donald Trump's advisors, about some of Trump's more radical/crazy ideas. One absolute corker was to build a trench across the US border with Mexico and fill it with alligators! But then again, I mentioned that Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, had just been interviewed about Trump, and Dimon highlighted all Trump's successes:

1. Growing the Economy
2. Possibly now being right about the Covid virus coming out of the Chinese Wuhan virus laboratory.
3. Certainly, being correct about Germany putting itself in strategic danger with its over-reliance on Russian gas.

I hope this doesn't make it sound like I'm a Trump fan? Because I am not. But I do believe that we are losing nuance in our debates. It's too easy to dismiss Trump as an idiot. Hilary Clinton did that and learnt the hard way.

The following day, I had lunch with my friend and colleague Damien Seaman in Chinatown in Soho. We discussed this topic again. We were in complete agreement about the performance aspect of life. 

We have been working together for some time on projects in the Human Resources Sector. So much of HR is performance. How your colleagues perceive you to some extent, certainly how you present yourself to senior management. Even how you settle disputes. And certainly, how any employee interactions are recorded officially often ends up as highly performative. After all, these 'performances' could profoundly affect your career and financial wellbeing! 

Human resources departments of companies are on a mission to 'level up' the differences of race, sexuality and sex right now.  I am fully behind these efforts, which are long past due. However, many argue that inequality has become an even more serious problem in the last 40 years. Inequality has been rising precipitously in the developed world. Perhaps levelling up financial inequality is a bigger challenge?

The Economist Thomas Piketty writes in his book 'Capital' that we are heading back in the direction of the early 19th century - where capital will become everything, and there will be almost no chance for a person to rise above their circumstances through hard work (unless the government takes serious measures to stop it). Can you see why corporations may be far less keen on tackling this topic than some others?

Right now, the 'mot du jour' is 'authenticity': Everyone wants to achieve this. Damien and I laughed at how even 'authenticity' has become a performance. How people even try to one-up each other on how authentic they are. This scenario is the opposite of true authenticity. When someone says one person is 'fake' whilst they are 'real', is it simply that they are a better performer?

Professor Sennett said that The word 'person', is derived from the Latin word 'persona' ("mask used by actor; role, part, character"). Isn't it interesting that we are now continually asked not to refer to men or women but to a 'person'? 

I didn't get to ask Professor Sennett my question, since so many people were asking questions during a relatively short Q&A. The question that stood out for me during the Q&A was from an LSE graduate student. He wondered if the trend of social media, and video, alongside people shortening attention spans, condemned us to be ruled by these demagogues, who master style over content. 

Professor Sennett answered that yes this was disturbing. He referenced how the UK had made one of its most significant policy changes in history, based on just such performance. Indeed the mastermind of Brexit, was Dominic Cummings, an expert at leveraging social media and digital advertising. 

Finally, another one of Professor Sennett's stories resonated with me. When Niccolo Machiavelli was writing 'The Prince', his career was over. He had been imprisoned earlier, was almost penniless and was living in a Tuscan Farmhouse far from Florence. But each night, he would don the robes he had worn as a respected and prestigious advisor to kings and dukes, to write; 

'When evening has come, I put on my regal and courtly garments, and decently reclothed, I enter the ancient courts of ancient men, where, received by them lovingly. There, I am not ashamed to speak with them and to ask them the reason for their actions, and they, in their humanity, reply to me.' 

Four great founders who are also amazing marketers

In my fifteen years working for tech startups, one area that I've seen some founders do exceptionally well and others do abysmally badly, is marketing. I worked for one CEO who called marketing 'the colouring in department' - not great for my self-esteem! 

Several CEOs considered Marketing a drain on money and obviously didn't like or trust their marketing leadership. But here are five founders I know understand the value of marketing. 

Jay Chaudhry, founder of Zscaler

Jay had already founded and sold three companies before he set up Zscaler, a leader in cloud-based cyber security. Firstly, his idea was brilliant. All the cyber security providers were producing hardware. He had the vision to see that cloud-based solutions were the future. Also, that employees will not be working in a physical office in the future. His entire company has been remote- or hybrid-based since its inception in 2008. He ‘drank his own Kool-Aid’ –a powerful marketing message.

We used to say we wanted to be 'the salesforce of cyber security'. Our marketing messages resonated - whether it was CIO or CISO white papers discussing 'what was keeping them up at night' (a lot, it turned out - Chief Information Security Officers spend days and nights stressing about their company's being hacked!). 

Or setting up 'Smash booths' at some of the biggest cyber security events in the world - like Infosec - where we encouraged attendees to smash up our competitor's hardware (a few raised eyebrows there - but whatever!).

In addition, he had a clear marketing strategy. He fired two CMOs who pressured him to focus on building the brand over developing lead generation. Jay knew that at an early stage of a business, the best way to build your brand was not to spend a fortune on fancy branding. It was simply to drive new customer acquisitions. 

Once you have a strong roster of clients, it is the ideal time to work on branding in the ways we usually understand - from website redesign to clarifying your brand image and tone. But when no one has even heard of you, it's premature to harp on your 'values'! When You are a well-established marque, like Apple, then they care.

Jay's sales and marketing approach was unusual for a startup as we aimed to secure Enterprise customers right out of the gate. Most startups begin with smaller customers and build up to larger ones. It was a tough sell sometimes - but the approach worked; within a few years, we had many large customers like Barclays Bank, Walmart, the NHS and BMW. This was our Sales Bible at Zscaler.

Jay never skimped on marketing – he spent generously. He upped the marketing budget in downturns because he knew this was the best time to capture new customers.

When your competitors cut back on advertising, which is cheap (during recessions), it is the best time to increase spending. Jay had a profound vision and a total belief in his company, meaning he could double down on marketing in tough times.

Brian Halligan, Co-founder (with Dharmesh Shah) of HubSpot

I got into marketing relatively late in my career. After college, I bummed around the world for a few years doing odd jobs (including a few interesting ones in TV and News). 

Then I was in sales, then finance, and finally, in around 2008, I hit on this career I love and have stuck with. One of the first practical marketing books I read (after the standard MBA business school ones like ‘Data-driven marketing’), was Brian Halligans ‘Inbound Marketing’.

Brian and his co-founder, Dharmesh Shah, practically invented inbound marketing, and they’ve been ahead of every trend in my industry – right up until now, with their idea of the marketing content ‘flywheel’. 

It helped that when I started my career, I lived about five blocks from their HQ in Cambridge, Massachusetts. So I used to bump into some of their senior executives at restaurants like Legal Seafood, just by MIT on Kendall Square.

It also helped that I have used HubSpot as my go-to platform at numerous successful startups. And I have utilized all their incredible free resources – from buyer persona and A/B testing templates, to using their Hubspot Academy to learn and get certified (it’s free unlike the super expensive salesforce ones).

Brian Halligan has an innovative approach to inbound marketing and the ability to understand and adapt to the evolving landscape of digital marketing. Under his leadership, HubSpot developed a comprehensive platform that integrates various marketing tools, making it a one-stop solution for businesses looking to optimize their online presence. 

Halligan's strategic thinking and commitment to customer-centric marketing have driven HubSpot's success and positioned him as a thought leader in the industry. His forward-thinking mindset, focus on building relationships, and dedication to staying ahead of marketing trends contribute to his reputation as a great marketer in the business world.

You can probably tell that this company makes me feel warm, fuzzy, and inspired, just like all the other companies I’ve written about today. You can read about a project I ran setting up HubSpot Marketing Automation and CRM for a company here. 

Tan Hooi Ling, co-founder (with Anthony Tan) of Grab

Tan Hooi Ling, co-founder of Grab, showcases brilliant marketing strategies that have contributed to the success of the Singapore-based transportation company in Southeast Asia. Founded in 2012 as a taxi-hailing app, Grab has expanded its services to include private car services, motorcycle taxis, social carpooling, food delivery, and more. 

Tan Hooi Ling played a crucial role in promoting the mobile app, and under her leadership, Grab has become a prominent player in over 500 cities and towns across eight countries in the region. 

The company's marketing brilliance lies in its ability to adapt to the diverse needs of customers, offering various services such as ride-hailing, food delivery, and digital payments. 

Grab's strategic partnerships with consumer brands, promotional offers, and unique features like GrabFood and GrabPay contribute to customer loyalty. 

Additionally, Grab's commitment to safety, transparency, continuous improvement, and responsiveness to government regulations and market trends sets it apart from competitors. 

The Importance of Grab's marketing approach, emphasizing consistency, innovation, and customer satisfaction as vital elements in maintaining a competitive edge in the evolving Southeast Asian market.

'We hire for humility. We cannot believe we are better and smarter than everyone else'.

Cheryl Goh, Grab CMO

I particularly like this quote because it highlights having an attitude of 'continuous learning' to problems. If you read 'Why smart executives fail', you'll see that thinking that you have nothing left to learn in your business is often fatal. 

I worked for one founder who was a bona fide 'genius'. He gained a top triple major degree in Computer Science, Russian and Maths at the age of 16 and was Bain's youngest Consultant at 18 years old (by then, he also had an MBA). 

But he lacked humility. He thought he was better than everyone else and that regular rules didn't apply to him or his business. When founders think like this and don't accept reality, it invariably destroys their company.

Elon Musk, founder of Tesla

Some might argue that Elon Musk is the anti-marketer! He has famously said he would not promote or advertise Tesla. He has built Tesla into an almost legendary brand without spending money on advertising. 

How has he accomplished such a feat? How has he built a car company worth more than all the other companies in less than 20 years? And how has he run four other companies at the same time? 

Calling his drilling company 'The Boring Company' was a masterstroke!

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink, is a remarkably effective and talented marketer due to his unique ability to craft compelling narratives and communicate a grand vision that captivates the public imagination. 

Musk's adept use of social media, particularly Twitter, allows him to directly engage with a massive audience, providing updates, sharing insights, and injecting a sense of personality into his companies.

His relentless pursuit of groundbreaking technologies and audacious goals, such as colonizing Mars and revolutionizing transportation, creates an aura of innovation and excitement around his ventures. 

Musk's charismatic and visionary leadership style attracts attention and instils confidence in investors, customers, and the public, contributing significantly to the success and widespread recognition of his diverse ventures.

I have been an investor in Tesla for about five years now. In addition, I read the excellent biography of Elon Musk written by Isaac Samuelson. He also wrote an excellent bio of Steve Jobs. How can you read this book and fail to be inspired by the genius of Elon Musk? 

Now that he is the wealthiest person on the planet, few people remember or appreciate how close he came to bankruptcy, and how recently that happened (in 2008). 

Demons undoubtedly drive Elon, and I’m not sure I’d want to be him. However, He is undoubtedly a genius. He also understands the 80-20 principle – that 20% of your best…..will drive 80% of your results. 

He laid off about 80% of Twitter, yet it still functions well (OK, some people are saying 'Twitter is dead,' but I disagree). He got a lot of flack for that – yet it worked. 

Are your 'loyal employees' lying to you?

According to People Management, 60% of employees are actively looking for work. Let that number sink in. 

How about in your company? Frank, your best salesperson, who ‘loves your company’. Is he interviewing at three other companies right this minute? How about Sally, who ‘couldn’t work anywhere else’ and is your 'client onboarding ninja'? Is she really with you? Or is she ‘Open for work’ to recruiters on LinkedIn? 

John, your network engineer, sure, he is slow, but he's talented, and besides, it's so hard to hire good engineers!

- Turns out the reason he's so slow is because he's moonlighting at your competitor's company, as a contractor (fully remote, of course!). That's one way to crack the cost of living crisis! 

Employee loyalty has been diminishing for years now. Covid and the cost of living crisis have accelerated that trend - anyone in talent acquisition or recruiting will tell you that most employers are vastly over-optimistic in their assessment of their own employee's loyalty levels. Many employers are living in a fool's paradise - and soon, reality will bite.

Times are tough – interest rates are rising, making those once easy-to-pay mortgage payments almost unbearable—everything has gone up in price, except for salaries, which have flatlined. 

Employees are not getting raises because usually their company cannot afford them – until it’s too late. Then their companies must pay the new salary, which is often 5%, 10% or even 20% above the old one.

What can an HR leader do to alleviate this situation? Particularly with 2024 around the corner. And you know what that means, right? 

Your employees could barely afford their Christmas last year. This year, they know it'll be even worse. They feel stressed, overworked, under-appreciated, and underpaid. And now they have some New Year’s resolutions:

• Join a gym.

• Go on a diet.

• Find a new job!

The last few years have been tough for HR Heads. First Brexit (in the UK), then the pandemic, then quiet quitting, the great resignation, and even loud quitting. How can Human Resources leaders calm those evil thoughts and sleep tight into 2024?

Another side-effect of having so many employees actively searching for better roles, is that even when at work, they are disengaged and unproductive. This is one reason why the UK,  and many other countries have experienced stagnating productivity over the last fifteen years.

I recently attended ‘Employee Benefits Live’, and one message came across clearly: The importance of collecting and harnessing your data. Not only to develop insights to make your decision-making more effective but also, to communicate better with your Executive Board, your CEO and your CFO.

    The keynote at Employee Benefits Live, in London, UK, on Oct 3rd, 2023

Have you ever had a brilliant idea that you were sure would make an enormous positive difference in your company? An initiative you were sure would build trust, engagement and loyalty in your employees? Or even help to acquire more talent? 

- Only for it to be shot down immediately by your CFO?

• CFOs don’t care about your ‘great ideas'

• They need data and numbers. And ultimately, they only care about the money. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS to them except the return on investment. 

• Many HR Leaders still use data ineffectively. Some even need help to understand their own data.

• If you can't speak the language of the C Suite and CFO, (Numbers and metrics), the programs you believe in will not progress past the idea stage.

Mastering and using your data more effectively is one way to step up your game and bring important initiatives to your company; 

Getting those vital programs off the ground, you know, will be critical to ensure fewer of your company's employees are ‘actively seeking a new role right now’.

What is marketing strategy?

Marketing strategy comes up regularly as a topic at B2B Startups. However, often it is confused with operational effectiveness. 

Operational effectiveness Is Not Strategy.

The root of the problem in answering the question of 'What is marketing strategy?' is the need for more clarity in distinguishing between operational effectiveness and strategy.

Of course, companies must be flexible to respond rapidly to competitive and market changes. They must benchmark continuously to achieve best practices.

Marketing has more platforms, ways to measure, and analytics benchmarks than ever. Although the resulting operational improvements have often been dramatic, many companies have been frustrated by their inability to translate those gains into sustainable marketing profitability. 

Despite improvements in all aspects of marketing technology, hitting the right metrics like cost per click, cost per impression, cost per lead, opportunity, and, of course, return on investment of marketing campaigns (ROMI) continues to be a challenge. 

‘A rising tide lifts all boats’

When everyone benefits from these incremental operational improvements – anything from better buyer intent data, to a clearer understanding of which marketing channels, campaigns, and ads drive the best results (Marketing ROI or ROAS), by the same logic, no one benefits.

That is too stark an option since, yes, some companies are in the top 5% of utilizing the latest marketing technology the most effectively and naturally, they will benefit relative to the competition. But the problem is that those methods can be duplicated.

Yet many B2B Startups don't want to admit that their often bigger, wealthier competitors may have a strong edge—a bigger brand and deeper pockets than them.

In my 20 years in Marketing, in some companies I've worked at, no one, even in the marketing department, had a clear idea of the marketing strategy, nor could they articulate it.

Occasionally this topic comes up profoundly. For example, about ten years ago, the CMO of a fast-growing and successful cybersecurity software company I worked for wanted to move away from marketing focused on lead generation, to almost exclusively on branding. 

Eventually, the will of the CEO prevailed; the CMO left, and the company shifted back from branding to a heavier investment in lead generation. 

For a B2B Startup, what's more important - Branding or Demand Generation (Activation)? Turns out the CEO was right. According to research, creating new customers early is more important than creating a brand. 

Your brand will develop from your customers and your employees. That's no doubt why that start-up is now a $30 billion market cap listed company on the Nasdaq. Of course, once you have a solid roster of customers, that is the ideal time to focus on the brand.

Operational effectiveness and strategy are both essential to superior performance. However, a company can only outperform its rivals sustainably in the long term if it has a superior marketing strategy.

Operational effectiveness means performing similar activities better than rivals. Another reason that improved operational effectiveness is insufficient—competitive convergence—is more subtle and insidious. The more benchmarking companies do, the more they look alike.

So what exactly is a Marketing Strategy for a Business to Business company?

A business-to-business (B2B) marketing strategy is a comprehensive plan designed to promote and sell products or services from one business to another. This strategy is tailored to the unique dynamics of B2B interactions, where the customer base consists of other businesses, rather than individual consumers.

The first key aspect of a B2B marketing strategy is a deep understanding of the target market. 

This involves conducting thorough research to identify the specific industries, companies, and decision-makers most likely to benefit from the products or services offered. 

Once the target audience is defined, the strategy creates a value proposition that addresses these businesses' specific challenges and needs. This might involve showcasing how the product or service improves efficiency, reduces costs, enhances productivity, or provides a competitive advantage.

The second component is communication. 

Effective B2B marketing strategies utilize various channels to reach decision-makers within the target businesses. These include industry conferences, trade shows, professional networks, email campaigns, and content marketing. 

Content is crucial in B2B marketing, as it demonstrates expertise and thought leadership. Case studies, whitepapers, webinars, and informative blog posts can help showcase the company's knowledge and ability to solve complex business problems. 

However, you should not indiscriminately and blindly churn out vast quantities of information. An overarching marketing content strategy should drive all marketing campaigns, from webinars to white papers, from blog posts to case studies (in video form or traditional, written).

How do I decide on what content strategy to pursue?

The key is to research the market and your competitors and interview every component in your buying cycle, including decision-makers, influencers, and partners. Do not make assumptions, even if they are based on received wisdom and accepted as fact. Ideally, as described in The Challenger Sale, you want to challenge your readers to think differently about their problems to solve them best.

Lastly, a successful B2B marketing strategy involves building and maintaining relationships. 

B2B transactions often involve longer sales cycles and higher-value contracts, so establishing trust and credibility is essential. Relationship-building efforts could include personalized follow-ups, exceptional customer support, and nurturing leads through the sales funnel. 

Regular engagement through networking events, webinars, roundtables (virtual and/or real), and workshops can reinforce the company's position as a reliable partner, encouraging repeat business and fostering long-term collaborations.

And let's remember the Sales Team: In B2B marketing, typically, sales are made by the sales team, not directly on the website. So good sales and marketing alignment is critical. 

What 'Dr Bob' taught me about Marketing for startups

One of my closest friends is a Doctor, someone I often visit for advice. He also has a medical PhD from one of the world's pre-eminent medical schools. 

I've learned much from 'Dr Bob' about being ethical, patient, rational, objective, and compassionate. 

Bob and I have a dark sense of humour, which helps us cope with life's difficulties. The more I've gotten to know Bob, the more I've learned to respect his outlook on life. 

What is his life philosophy? He is a stoic. He once told me that he didn't like the word 'happiness' and preferred the Greek term eudaimonia.

In the works of Aristotle, eudaimonia was the term for the highest human good in the older Greek tradition. It is a central concept in Aristotelian ethics.

Throughout my 15-year marketing career, I've worked with numerous tech startups. My role often feels like being a doctor. Of course, the stakes are lower; money may be lost, but no one will die if I fail. 

But I have been lucky to have worked at companies where the patients have thrived and become world-record-beating athletes! – When you've seen those 'patients' struggling, on their knees at times, it's wonderful to be part of that transformation!

Despite my education and training, I've made mistakes earlier in my career; Once, I was involved in a mismanaged website rebrand.

Our leadership had yet to realise that changing the website would crash all our search and SEO traffic. 

Another time, I made some errors with our database and email campaigns that got our Marketing automation software shut down. I was forced into negotiations to get it back up and running (luckily, it only went down for two days).

No talent, intelligence or education will help you entirely avoid mistakes – only experience will. Fortunately, it's been many years since I made such professional blunders. Over time, you build up the wisdom to make the right judgment calls.

Co-workers at Startups, like patients, can be rude, disrespectful, and dismissive of your experience and training at times. But when this happens to me now, I act like a doctor.

– Why is this or that person at that company so rude? Is it because they are bad people? No, of course not - In my experience, at least not in nine times out of ten cases. Often, they are stressed out and not thinking straight. 

I'm human, and using my valuable skills to help when they are not appreciated sometimes feels bad. But I've become much more empathetic over the years. 

The world of VC-backed startups can be a harsh environment. Your targets - from lead numbers to sales revenue - can vary from aggressively ambitious to almost impossible. So, even if you have growth rates that would be considered stellar in the regular business world, more is often needed.

Sometimes, no matter how much effort or results you achieve, they will not satisfy your private equity investors. But they risk their money, so fair enough!

I'm fortunate to love my work, which helps me stay calm and reasonable in most challenging situations. I know how lucky I am to do what I enjoy  - many people don't have that luxury!

One part of the job I absolutely adore is working with data. I enjoy discussing data science and analytics with Dr 'Bob'; Our outlooks are rational, ethical and scientific.

If your business-to-business technology startup is struggling with its Sales and Marketing, why not take a look at some of my work and see what you think?

The most common marketing analytics mistakes (and how to avoid them)

When you've been around the b2b marketing block as long as I have, you start to spot common errors in marketing analytics. I am fortunate to have had the opportunity to pursue a two-year MBA, which provided a solid foundation in analytics that I've continued to build upon through online studies. 

Hence, I'm well placed to write this article. So here goes, the most common errors and/or challenges I've spotted in my now rather long marketing career:

I could write this entire blog post on one topic alone - Probability. It is constantly misunderstood. Even well-known publications like The London Times, or CNN, often make errors. The most common one is confusing correlation with causation; Just because two things happen regularly at the same time, it does not prove that there is a causal connection. Here are some funny examples to demonstrate my point. 

The second most common mistake I've seen in my career regards A/B testing, and Statistical Significance. It's amazing how often this type of evidence goes unquestioned, even in big rooms of senior executives.

Let's say we are testing out two images in an email we send out, which we send to 20,000 contacts. 

• Image A: 71 clicks
• Image B: 87 clicks

Clearly, image B is 'the winner', right? But hold up just one minute. Have you tested this experiment for statistical significance? To what degree are you certain that this test is conclusive? 

This is where the concept of Confidence Intervals is invaluable. I can go into the equations on how you calculate this number, as I had to do in my first year MBA Statistics basics class (thank you Raj, my stats tutor, who helped me after hours to get through this tough class with a good grade!).

But fortunately, understanding the math is not critical to running a good A/B test. In fact, Hubspot has a handy AB testing kit, that contains the formulas you need, so you can simply plug in your numbers, and get your answer! 

Here you can see that I've done this myself. And look at the results! 

As you can see, it has failed both the standard, 90% confidence interval, and the more rigorous, 95% confidence interval tests.

In fact, we are only 22.5% confident that this data is conclusive. In other words, Clicks went up, but not by enough to confidently say it wasn’t just randomness.

Here's what those confidence intervals look like on a probability bell curve

The 'Moneyball' problem

So if you're a bit of a statistics fan like me, you may well have read a few books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, like 'Fooled by randomness' and 'The Black Swan' - in my case, after learning all about statistics at business school, he brilliantly debunked some common statistical errors for me.

And I'm sure you will have either read the book 'Moneyball' or seen the excellent movie.

The Moneyball problem is when everyone in your company, and perhaps even everyone in your industry, is measuring the wrong things. Moneyball is often summarised as 'use data to win'. But the deeper lesson is harsher: you can measure brilliantly and still lose if you’re measuring the wrong thing. 

In the movie, Baseball didn’t suffer from a lack of stats, it suffered from mispriced stats. Batting average and RBIs looked like performance, but they weren’t the most reliable predictors of wins. Oakland’s edge came from shifting attention to what compounded: getting on base, over and over, from undervalued players.

You could perhaps compare this to marketing that measures 'last click' attribution, when marketing mix modelling is the real driver of success - the combination of all channels that produces the win. You are focusing on the metrics, not because they are the best, but because a) either those are the only ones you have, or b) because your company, or industry are all measuring these things - 'everyone is doing it!' It is the industry standard.

Parametric v Non-Parametric Tests

Many of the B2B marketing debates I've had weren’t about strategy. They were about statistics. In B2B and ABM, our data is often:

• Small samples
• Skewed (deal) values
• A few big wins and lots of noise

Yet we still default to averages when we ask:
'Did this campaign work?'

One outlier deal can distort performance. One-off wins can make weak tactics look strong. The better question is:

'Did this activity consistently produce better outcomes (that can be scaled, or replicated)?' - or was it just a lucky (or unlucky) one-off?

That’s where non-parametric thinking helps:
• Medians over means
• Distributions over totals
• Consistency over hero results
• Directional confidence over false precision
Big, stable datasets? Averages are fine.
Small, messy, high-stakes ones? Rank, consistency and probability win

I would just like to add that I hope everyone reading this takes it in the right spirit. Just because I've mastered some of these subjects, does not mean I consider myself particularly smart, or even an 'expert' - it's simply that I've been lucky to have had the opportunity to study these concepts, to devote a lot of time to them, and that I'm genuinely interested in them.

Understanding these concepts doesn't make me a better professional or even a better marketer. Others have many insights into this topic, or other directions, which could be equally, or indeed, far more cogent and useful. More than anything I hope that my posts provoke a useful discussion. Maybe it can help you, or your business?

Another good lesson from 'Moneyball' is that it's more about systems than people. And if you can improve systems, methodology, and measurement by just 1% a week, by the end of the year you'll have a significant gain. 

"To know, is to know that you know nothing. That is the meaning of true knowledge." 

- Plato